Good Day Bloggers!  After coming out of a cool December, it appears things are starting the New Year even colder.  It could be record cold temps for many points in the nation through the next few days.  I had asserted in a prior blog in mid December that with the continued Arctic Oscillation negative trend, things will continue to cool and get colder.

Indeed it has!  Below is a quick chart I put together from the AO index spanning from last August to January.  I also added a polynomial trendline to the data to show the oscillation heading out of Summer into Winter.  I also added some indicators as to when the peak was to some of the dips in the trend.

The chart above would indicate a rise of the AO could be on its way!  That is great news for many that have been gripped with the Arctic air and those concerned with temperature sensitive crops.  Below is today's AO forecast and it too indicates a rise in the upcoming days.

With the AO beginning to retreat, I would expect for the northern jet to relax a bit and retreat allowing for the El Nino enhanced southern jet to become a bigger player in the upcoming time period.  How does this play into the LRC?  Let's look back at the January forecast and look at what Gary has forecasted for the next week to ten days or so.

"A trough digs into the Rocky Mountain states forming into a slow moving storm.....what does this mean in January?  The above map shows the storm just digging into the western states on November 14th. This closed off into a slow moving storm in mid-November, and this will likely be one of the bigger storm systems in January, but farther south and with Arctic air to play with. In November there was no snowpack or Arctic air available yet.  Expect a major winter storm somewhere in the plains during this 12th through 19th stretch of January. This storm will then lift into the Ohio Valley or  mid-Atlantic states and New England towards the end of this period."

Looking long range in the models, it is quite interesting now what is showing up.  I am including the European model from today.  Granted, this will morph and change shape a bit between now and the event, but we are expecting a major snow storm to evolve from what is being shown - predicted on Gary's January 4th blog.

Here is what the Euro is showing for this time period.

Let's keep an eye on this storm and continue to watch the LRC evolve together as the pattern continues to cycle!

Have a great day!

Scott