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January Forecast
Happy Monday LRC Weather Bloggers,
Yesterday we talked about the Arctic Oscillation (AO), El Nino, and other teleconnections and how they are playing a role in this years LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle). We believe they have an influence on the cycling pattern, but they don't create the cycle. Something much bigger is still going on. Teleconnections are just an indicator of what has happened and what is happening. They numerically represent other atmospheric conditions such as blocking and other events that occur as part of the LRC and other oscillations. The LRC is a tool that can be used to make forecasts. We accurately predicted a major winter storm Christmas week 23 days before it happened! We just had one of the most successful long range forecasts and it is time to look ahead again. So, what lies ahead of us:
Before we get started I must explain how the January version of the LRC will act differently than the November version. This happens every year, even though we can clearly show how the pattern is still cycling regularly. This year's cycle length is right around 62 days, and as consistent as this has been lately, there will have to be some variation from cycle to cycle, week to week, day to day. So, it could end up 58 to 66 days in the coming cycles. Cycle #3 will begin later this month. Just a few days off on the cycle and our longer range forecasts could end up as much as a week off. This is why I will try to open up some wider windows for expected events to happen.
Parts of the United States are experiencing a long duration Arctic air and snow influenced weather event. This is a growing concern as there is not much warm air in sight. The strongest Arctic blast yet is about to arrive this week. The snow pack and large Arctic air mass will be tough to move out and this combined with a stronger January jet stream could lead to major problems for large regions of the United States. Pipes will be freezing, furnaces will be going out, and large populations of people and animals will be affected as this event grows in strength and duration.
Let's begin this January forecast with a look at what is going on this week, and then move forward through the end of the month:
This week:
There is a strong shortwave developing over the top of an amplifying ridge just off the west coast of North America over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This wave will vigorously intensify by Wednesday and track south of the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. A record breaking Arctic air mass will plunge south all the way through Florida and the Gulf of Mexico with the Arctic front approaching the Yukatan Peninsula by the weekend. Wow! This shortwave, doing this damage can be traced to a strong short wave that tracked north of Minnesota in early November. In November there wasn't any blocking over the northern latitudes, and thus it seems that the LRC is being masqued for a very brief time, but I don't see it that way. Everything is still on schedule and cycling close to around 62 days. We are just seeing a seasonal variation of cycle #2 of this years LRC with some strong influence from the record breaking negative AO, and some affect from El Nino.
This Arctic Blast and storm system was just a shortwave trough lifting northeast on the 7th of November north of Minnesota. The AO back in November went slightly positive and the flow as a result was affected and not as amplified. This allowed for more Pacific energy to blast into the west coast, and it may be about to happen again, but in a January version of this year's LRC.
8th-10th of November: Forecast for the 9th to 11th of January:
A little ridge formed north of Idaho and rapidly progressed east. This will likely happen again but with a farther south jet and a bit more amplitude due to the seasonal differences that happen in January as opposed to November. With this cycles version of the LRC we can expect a much farther south jet stream, trapping cold air in place and even bringing another surge of cold south from Canada.
11th-15th of November: Forecast for the 12th to 19th of January
A trough digs into the Rocky Mountain states forming into a slow moving storm.....what does this mean in January? The above map shows the storm just digging into the western states on November 14th. This closed off into a slow moving storm in mid-November, and this will likely be one of the bigger storm systems in January, but farther south and with Arctic air to play with. In November there was no snowpack or Arctic air available yet. Expect a major winter storm somewhere in the plains during this 12th through 19th stretch of January. This storm will then lift into the Ohio Valley or mid-Atlantic states and New England towards the end of this period.
18th-21st of November: Forecast for the 19th to 25th of January
We go into chaotic transition with another series of waves coming into the west coast...this will likely lead to some warming and modification of the Arctic air that will be stubborn to move out. There will be some weaker storm systems tracking across the United States as energy is about to blast into the west coast.
22nd-25th of November: Forecast for the 23rd to 30th of January
A stronger storm digs into the plains, exactly where this will track in the January version (cycle #2) of the LRC is uncertain. It will become a bigger mid-Atlantic and eastern storm system later in January around the 25th give or take a couple of days. This will likely be one of the two or three major winter storms of the month.
27th-30th of November: January 28th - early February
The upper level flow will be reorganizing as we are about to go into cycle #3 of this years LRC. This is the part of the pattern that produced the December major winter storm systems. This is the most likely time to warm up before everything reloads for another winter blast and series of storm systems in February.
Let us know if you have any questions, thoughts, or ideas. We are in a very unusual and rather unique weather pattern. And, somewhat as expected by us, The typical El Nino temperature anomalies have not materialized this year.
Gary
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How do today's snow maps compare to the ones posted at the nbcactionnews
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