May recap and interesting forecast

April 3rd, LRC Weather received the following request from a global weather information provider.

"Scott can you give me your best shot for tornadic outbreak this May?"

Determining tornado outbreaks are difficult to forecast even hours ahead of time. It did not seem this request was remotely feasible. That said, what was feasible was using the LRC theory in projecting over a month ahead of time when large scale synoptic patterns would be favorable for severe weather.

Certainly, not every severe setup would yield an outbreak, but there are certain types of patterns that suggest a higher likelihood of the ingredients needed for tornadic weather. With that in mind, we provided three ranges of dates that the past cycles suggested could be conducive for these potential setups.

Here was the response -

May 7-11th (30%), 14th - 17th (50%), 23rd-25th (60%)

These dates were chosen in using the LRC theory in analyzing past cycles and those times where the large scale patterns seemed possible. Remember, the LRC is a completely new way of analysis that 99.9% of the world is unaware of or does not believe could exist. We use this theory for our clients providing huge advantages in forecasting saving our clients money in planning and operations.

So, in looking at these dates - below is a review of the month of May and how things ended up.

May started out with a bang! In continuation from the late April wave entering the Plains the last few days of April, the storm reached its pinnacle on May 1st with an outbreak in the Southeast impacting Arkansas, Mississippi, Missouri, Kentucky and Tennessee.



Unfortunately, we did not pick this time as it was expected this would be more of an April storm where it began. That said, this was a deadly storm with 42 tornado reports logged on May 1st.

After this upper level wave lifted NE into the northern Plains, the next few days resulted in a much quieter pattern with largely a zonal flow.



Per the LRC, we expected the flow to amplify where a series of waves would cut through the Plains states yielding a potential setup for severe weather. The pinnacle of this time frame occurred on May 10th with a tornado outbreak in Oklahoma.




42 reports of tornadoes were reported in Kansas and Oklahoma. Atleast two EF-4 tornadoes were surveyed by the NWS and many other smaller tornadoes. During the first forecast span, both a moderate risk and high risk outlook from the SPC was issued.

Active weather continued through the next week though tornado reports were largely kept in check. As our second forecast window came into focus - the expected wave was two days later than forecasted. While it did not hit within the exact window, it was within one day on onset continuing into the second. The next outbreak occurred May 18-19th affecting 5 states yielding a combined two day total of 64 tornado reports.

Moving forward from this time frame, the pattern again relaxed a bit. Still each day recorded tornado reports, but were largely dispersed across the US. This leaves us with our last forecast window of May 23-25th.

We forecasted this time frame anticipating a strong upper level wave dropping from the Pacific Northwest and moving into the Plains states. This has had a very strong signal in past cycles, thus the highest confidence level in our forecast. Here is the surface map for the 23rd:



As these upper level waves ejected into the Northern Plains, they were negatively tilted bringing ample moisture and instability into the boundaries providing ample ingredients for tornadic activity from Texas to North Dakota - border to border. Three day totals of tornado reports from the 23rd to the 25th yielded 62 tornado reports.

In summary, our forecast yielded the following outbreaks:

May 10th - 42 reports and two states
May 18-19th - 64 reports and five states
May 23-25th - 62 reports and eleven states

While it would not be accurate to assume that all severe weather can be predicted and pinpointed over a month in advance using the LRC - especially tornadoes, but the LRC does provide insight in large scale patterns days/weeks/ months in advance that may bring adverse weather conditions to areas in the US.

This year has been a terrific year with the business and the theory. Countless hours of research have been poured into the theory yielding some of the best forecasts yet for our customers! We enjoy sharing these successes and forecast theory ideas with all of our readers!

Have a great day!

LRC Map to Map Again

LRC Weather Bloggers,

I had a couple of days off and I am working on my presentation for Miami that I will be giving at the AMS Broadcast Conference in juw over three weeks. This weather pattern continues to cycle according to the LRC, and I will go over another map to map comparison. When we show you the LRC there are various ways we have done this. My favorite way is showing the maps day by day in these comparisons.  But there are other ways. We have shown you graphical plots of 500 mb heights at random locations showing how the cycles actually line up. This takes a bit more work, but it is also there to present to you. And, eventually a mathematical model may be able to be developed to possibly take the LRC and use it in modeling the forecasts weeks to months in advance.  More on this in future blog and I will be writing a paper to present for peer review sometime within the next year.

So, where are we in this years cycling pattern as I am writing this blog entry?  Let's begin with the comparison from around a week ago when I tried to explain and establish that May 22nd was directly related to January 22nd (the second and fourth cycles of this years LRC as we are about to go into the fifth cycle of the LRC as the pattern began in early October and we now moving into June).  Here is that comparison again:

The above map is from January 22, 2010.  And, the below 500 mb chart is from May 22, 2010 or 120 days later:

If this were just a random picking of the maps, then a week later the comparisons wouldn't still be valid, right?  Well, it isn't a random picking of the maps.  Take a look at where we are now just six days after I showed this last weekend:

This time the above map is the initial analysis from May 28, 2010, and the below map is from 120 days earlier or January 28, 2010:

Now, let's look at the features. As I discussed in the previous blog comparing May and January can seem quite difficult due to the massive jet stream strength differences between the dead of winter and late spring.  And yet, I can clearly see the same weather pattern but in a weaker May state.  Can you see it?  Take a look at the trough in the west, the ridge over the top of the trough in western Canada, the deep Hudson Bay upper low, and the southern plains ridge. Compare these features on the maps below:

The above double map comparison is still just a two day to one week comparison of the cycling pattern from two cycles of this year's LRC.  It clearly shows some strong evidence that the pattern is still cycling, and regularly, at around 60 days.  So, this should help us as we look into the summer months right?  I would strongly agree that it will help a good weather forecaster, but there is a lot to think about. The weather pattern from mid-June into September reaches its weakest jet stream strength and then begins increasing again as fall approaches. The heights rise and the jet stream lifts farther and farther north. The very weak summer version of the LRC is just another challenging time to forecast weeks and months ahead.  Where will the anticyclones develop and meander around?  A heat wave making anticyclone aloft may still be related to the LRC and I just haven't spent a lot of time working on predicting where these features will be located.  We are currently analyzing the pattern and if we feel confident enough in a long range summer forecast, then we will issue one soon.

The upper flow and jet stream have not settled into the summer version of this years LRC yet.  Just looking back to the comparison in January, we can forecast that the jet stream will drop south into the plains again during the next two to three weeks creating more severe weather set-ups and some strong June cold fronts. Just south of these fronts there will be some growing heat and the battle will be on. This will likely result in stronger MCS activity through the plains, very heavy flooding rains, and some big temperature contrasts. With this said, summer is still on the way and all of this will likely relax as the heights rise and the jet stream retreats later in the month of June.

Check back in during the first week of June for some more details, and if you have any questions or thoughts please let us know. We would love to open up a discussion here in this blog.

Gary Lezak

 

 

 

 

 

 

LRC map to map comparison

Good morning LRC Weather bloggers,

Skytracker, the NBC Action News helicopter with Pilot Captain Greg Borden and photograper Tom Baab, caught this lightning strike in a non severe thunderstorm on Tuesday:

Go to www.NBCActionNews.com and click on the new Action Weather Blog for more details on the changing pattern.  We will be tracking thunderstorm development this afternoon.

There were a couple of thunderstorms at 7:30 AM this morning, May 26th, heading into the Kansas City metro area. These are moving very slowly, which indicates that we have very weak winds aloft.  This will limit any chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon, but we still have to watch each individual thunderstorm closely. 

Take a look at these two maps from May 22nd and January 22nd:

The above map is the 500 mb plot from May 22nd, and the below map is 120 days, or two cycles before this time period.

I spent hours last weekend staring at the entire weather pattern.  The first thing a critic will say is that these maps don't match up perfectly.  The second thing they usually state is that go to the next day, and then even just two days later and the differences become major.  And, then they conclude that it is just a coincidence that these above two maps even look similar.  Well, after hours of analysis this weekend I can answer all of the questions. 

• The above two maps do compare with seasonal differences in strength.  One map is from the middle of winter, and one is less than a month from summer.
• In January the jet stream is much stronger. The heights are much lower, yet the features are very similar and right on our 60 day cycle.  From January 23rd to 25th the western trough pushed through the eastern Canada ridge.  In May the trough is forced to go over the ridge. This is resulting in what seems to be a different pattern, but I will agrue that it is still the same.
• The end result will be for very different things to happen at the surface
• With the knowledge of the LRC, the cycle length, and weather forecast expertise, the expert could have made this prediction two months ago that this would happen.

Just some thoughts today. 

Gary

LRC in May by Jeremy Nelson

Good afternoon LRC Weather Bloggers,

I was going to write up a blog on where we are within the cycling pattern, the LRC, but Jeremy Nelson beat me to it today.  This is from his blog at WISN-TV in Milwaukee.  We miss you in Kansas City Jeremy. And, thanks! 

The Weather Pattern Ahead