|
|
LRC Weather Bloggers,
Happy Superbowl Sunday! Washington D.C. and surrounding areas just had a massive winter storm with snowfall accumulations of around 2 feet. Who thinks that it is just a coincidence that they had a similar snowstorm in December? We believe it is the LRC! There may be an influence from El Nino, the AO, and other oscillations, but more impressively it is the cycling weather pattern.
There are two main aspects to the LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) concept and my theory.
- Long term long-wave troughs and ridges set up during the early fall
- The unique weather pattern cycles regularly through these long term troughs and ridges
So, we strongly believe that it is the LRC that easily could have predicted the major snowstorm that just repeated, and the reason D.C. has had multiple near record to record breaking snowfall events this season. They will likely get another snowstorm this season before spring arrives and then a likely wet spring as well. I will be using this example as one of the strong showcases in my presentation that I am working on for the Broadcast conference of the American Meteorolical Society this June in Miami.
Have a great Superbowl Sunday. I am predicting an Indianapolis victory today! Peyton Manning is just too good and the Saints defense is too suspect! Let's see if our sports prediction can be as accurate as our weather predictions. Predicting the future is tough.
Gary Lezak
LRC Weather Bloggers,
Thank you for checking in today. This weather pattern is now incredible as back to back major winter storms are in the forecast during the next few days. The first one will be tracking from Kansas City to Washington D.C. And, then the second major winter storm will be developing on Monday, February 8th as Arctic air plunges south into the plains states. This is all part of this years LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) as they fall into the long term long-wave troughs.
February is likely going to be one of the snowiest second months of the year for many cities. Kansas City had its third coldest October, then its third snowiest December, and I said on the air the other night that maybe Kansas City is about to experience a combination of the snowiest and coldest February's on record. I know it is only February 5th, but this is going to be a month to remember across this band from the middle part of the nation to the mid-Atlantic states.
I will add more thoughts later on today or tonight as we go into where we are within the roughly 60 day cycle this year.
Gary Lezak
LRC Bloggers,
As we go into February there is a large and expansive Arctic Air mass over Canada. The flow aloft continues to split and the Arctic Oscillation has trended toward neutral. Eventually I am expecting this Arctic air mass to reorganize and blast south into the United States, but the most likely time would be the second half of February based on the LRC and what the Arctic Oscillation would indicate. Take a look at last night's 00z GFS model run showing the -20º to -40º air mass extending from central Canad northwest to Alaska (the white areas are all below -20ºF):
The flow aloft just has shown no strong indication of developing the kind of flow that would bring this Arctic air mass south into the United States. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also cycling and has been heading to near neutral, or even a bit positive in the past few days. When the Arctic Oscillation goes positive Arctic air is more likely to stay in Canada, and when it goes negative there is a better chance that the Arctic air will invade the United States. The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) would indicate that we are likely going to stay near neutral in the AO for another week or two before it cycles back deeper into the negative. Take a look at the AO and the GFS forecast below:
We are just learning this year how the LRC may be able to predict what the AO will do, and other oscillations as well. Is there a relationship? I think so. The teleconnections are just an indication of what is happening now and what has happened. It hasn't been used as a forecasting tool. The LRC is cycling at around a 57 to 62 day period. The AO is also cycling and closely aligned to the LRC this year. The LRC will be going into the part of the pattern that produced the largest storm systems of the season in December soon, and if this syncs up with the AO going into the negative then we will likely have another two or three powerful winter storms later in February. But, will they be in sync like they were in December?
Gary
Hey LRC blogger and weather enthusiasts,
I am currently in Las Vegas and doing a lot of research on the LRC. Believe it or not I come here to relax, get away, and do some thinking. I have been analyzing the weather pattern, this year's cycling LRC, the Arctic Oscillation, the MJO, El Nino, the NAO, PNA, and so much more. Most importantly is the LRC and the cycling pattern that I will be going into this week as we are now going into the third cycle of this years roughly 60 to 62 day cycle.
Take a look at where we are now. The west coast just set low surface pressure records. There may very well have been an El Nino influence to this west coast series of storm systems, but it was more directly related to this years LRC. El Nino is just that, an influence and it is definitely having an impact across North America this winter. We forecast (weeks before this happened) this past week to have these west coast storm systems blasting in, due to the seasonal placement of the jet stream, combined with what we know about this years LRC. This part of the pattern will be returning around 60 days from now near the end of March. By this time, however, the jet stream will have started its slow retreat northward as we move into spring. So, will the west coast get bombarded again in late March? It is not unheard of, as I grew up in Los Angeles, and I know when the rainy season ends. There is usually an abrupt end to Southern California's rainy season during the first half of April, so this part of the pattern may again produce some very interesting LRC 2009-2010 results one more time. California is not near one of the long-term longwave troughs this winter, it is just this part of the pattern that produces the most significant storm systems near the west coast. If the west coast was near one of the longwave troughs then they would be getting hit more often than just during this part of the weather pattern.
Let's take a look at where we are right now. We are at the end of cycle two of this year's weather pattern. We have already described this as we moved from cycle 1 into cycle 2. So, to some of you this may sound familiar. Take a look at the next two maps as this is where we are right now:
The above map shows the 500 mb flow from November 23, 2009. And the map below shows the 500 mb initialized on January 23, 2010 or 62 days later. It is not a coincidence and I know this is just a snapshot in time. The entire patern is cycling and we can back and forth days, weeks and months and show how it is the entire pattern that is following this year's LRC cycle duration. Just look at the comparisons:
And, this week take a look at what happens next:
The above map is from November 26th, and the map below is valid January 25th:
So, what happens next? The big features are easier to predict, and this next pattern shift will likely happen during the next two weeks. A hugh, high amplitude ridge will likely form as it has in cycle 1 and cycle 2. This will be the beginning of the Arctic Oscillation going back deep into the negative which has to lead to another Arctic outbreak:
This feature will likely develop in various ways during the next phase of the LRC. The Arctic Oscillation will very likely be drifting back deep into the negative phase as it is also cycling, and quite possibly in assocation or closely related to the LRC.
I will be back in Kansas City soon as we track these developments. Let us know if you have any questions, thoughts or ideas!
Gary
