|
Good evening LRC Weather Bloggers,
August is coming to a close in the next few days and the weather pattern is still familiar and similar to what we have been experiencing for the past 10 months. As hurricane season limps along, perhaps finally gaining some strength with Tropical Storm Danielle and possibly Earl forming in the coming days, we are still seeing strong evidence that the pattern is still cycling at close to 60 days. A new cycle may be developing, but it is in its infancy at this time.
Here is the evidence of the cycling pattern. Take a look at the following sequence of maps:
The above map shows the 500 mb heights on June 28th, and the below map shows the 500 mb forecast 58 days later. The pattern is rather similar with an upper level ridge strongly developing over the southwestern states right now, and it was also rather strong on June 28th as you can see above:
During the next week a trough is forecast to drop into the western states and this is exactly what happened five days later on July 3rd, 58 days ago. Take a look at the two maps:
As you can see the comparison is likely not just a coincidence, but a strong indication that we are still cycling through the weather pattern that developed and evolved last fall during October 2009:
A new weather pattern will be developing during the next eight weeks, but the old pattern will likely still dominate as the jet stream begins strengthening as the seasons change. We will be monitoring it closely. Check back in soon and let us know if you have any questions.
Gary Lezak
Hello folks!
I first must apologize for the slow down in blog posts. We have begun to supplement some content using Facebook. We have a LRC Weather Fan Page, and normally update it several times a week. As the new pattern begins to set up, we will be sharing more analysis on this blog.
The summer is not over, and I must confess...I am ready for it to be done. The humidity and moistness of the airmasses have been quite remarkable this year. Add in oppressive heat for most of us in the eastern 2/3rds of the country - and it has been miserable. For those in the northern Plains, this is the severe season that just won't end. North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, Nebraska, Iowa and Wisconsin seems to have had an extended season with severe events continuing even through the time of this post. Wow. Who is ready for this pattern to end?
I am. Time for something new.
This year, we are testing a hypothesis or two regarding the initation of the LRC. We hope through these tests we are able to discover the cycle/pattern sooner than in the past.
Over the Summer, we presented the LRC at the AMS Broadcast Conference in Miami. The presentation went off very well and was very well received. We had numerous meteorologists approach us after the meeting to get more details.
As we continue to research, we are finding many academic papers supporting ideas we have about the LRC. This is very encouraging. We have learned a great deal in the last two years about the theory mechanics and are evolving each day how to use it for forecasting.
We are finding that as we learn and from what we have already learned, we are providing a huge advantage for many of our clients. We have recieved very positive feedback regarding how well the LRC is working for them.
From a biz perspective, we are very busy. We have garnered a great deal of interest and are working to serve more and more clients.
Well, this is all for now. I look forward to writing a more technical blog in the upcoming weeks as more about the new pattern is found.
Have a great day!
Scott
The above satellite picture and product is from the National Hurricane Center in Miami. We are moving into August and hurricane season is limping along. We had a booming start with Hurricane Alex which slammed into Mexico south of Texas creating all kinds of problems. The storm killed six people there and as of Tuesday, 650,000 people had been left without drinking water and 350,000 others without access to normal communication.
However, the storm dumped most of its rains on Nuevo Leon State, where ensuing floods killed 17 people. President Felipe Calderon visited Nuevo Leon’s capital Monterrey, where140,000 people were left without food and water in that city alone. Coahuila, on the downstream of Nuevo Leon, was the third worst-hit Mexican state.
The storm killed a total of 27 people across Mexico and 10 people in Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador, which were in the storm’s path to Mexico.
Then, we barely had Tropical Storm Bonnie a couple of weeks ago near Florida. And, now where does this leave us? Well, this isn't that unusual. Hurricane season always picks up in August and September. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks.
The LRC is at its weakest point right now. The jet stream will now begin strengthening very slowly as we move through this eighth month of the year, but the impacts may not be felt for a while longer.
Have a great beginning to August and check back in often as the new LRC begins to evolve!
Gary Lezak
Hello LRC Weather Blog Enthusiasts,
Thanks for checking in this week. I will be going into some detail on the LRC and what happens during the summer months. We are still in the same pattern that set up last fall and we are about to move into the sixth cycle. The cycle length has been close to 60 days and, as we have been showing in previous blog entries, the pattern has been rather consistent and able to compare from cycle to cycle.
I titled this entry, "Tipping the jet stream balance". The jet stream reaches its weakest strength and farthest north position in late July into early August. And, then it begins its slow southward pust and the strength gradually increases later in August and into the beginning of Autumn. So, right now we close to this "tipping point". What does it mean? Could the pattern begin to change? We don't see any evidence yet.
I will add more thoughts later this week. Have a great day.
Gary
