LRC Bloggers,

As we go into February there is a large and expansive Arctic Air mass over Canada.  The flow aloft continues to split and the Arctic Oscillation has trended toward neutral.  Eventually I am expecting this Arctic air mass to reorganize and blast south into the United States, but the most likely time would be the second half of February based on the LRC and what the Arctic Oscillation would indicate.  Take a look at last night's 00z GFS model run showing the -20º to -40º air mass extending from central Canad northwest to Alaska (the white areas are all below -20ºF):

The flow aloft just has shown no strong indication of developing the kind of flow that would bring this Arctic air mass south into the United States.  The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is also cycling and has been heading to near neutral, or even a bit positive in the past few days.  When the Arctic Oscillation goes positive Arctic air is more likely to stay in Canada, and when it goes negative there is a better chance that the Arctic air will invade the United States.  The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) would indicate that we are likely going to stay near neutral in the AO for another week or two before it cycles back deeper into the negative. Take a look at the AO and the GFS forecast below:

We are just learning this year how the LRC may be able to predict what the AO will do, and other oscillations as well.  Is there a relationship?  I think so.  The teleconnections are just an indication of what is happening now and what has happened.  It hasn't been used as a forecasting tool.  The LRC is cycling at around a 57 to 62 day period. The AO is also cycling and closely aligned to the LRC this year.  The LRC will be going into the part of the pattern that produced the largest storm systems of the season in December soon, and if this syncs up with the AO going into the negative then we will likely have another two or three powerful winter storms later in February.  But, will they be in sync like they were in December?

Gary