Hey LRC blogger and weather enthusiasts,

I am currently in Las Vegas and doing a lot of research on the LRC.  Believe it or not I come here to relax, get away, and do some thinking.  I have been analyzing the weather pattern, this year's cycling LRC, the Arctic Oscillation, the MJO, El Nino, the NAO, PNA, and so much more.  Most importantly is the LRC and the cycling pattern that I will be going into this week as we are now going into the third cycle of this years roughly 60 to 62 day cycle. 

Take a look at where we are now.  The west coast just set low surface pressure records.  There may very well have been an El Nino influence to this west coast series of storm systems, but it was more directly related to this years LRC.  El Nino is just that, an influence and it is definitely having an impact across North America this winter.  We forecast (weeks before this happened) this past week to have these west coast storm systems blasting in, due to the seasonal placement of the jet stream, combined with what we know about this years LRC.  This part of the pattern will be returning around 60 days from now near the end of March.  By this time, however, the jet stream will have started its slow retreat northward as we move into spring.  So, will the west coast get bombarded again in late March?  It is not unheard of, as I grew up in Los Angeles, and I know when the rainy season ends.  There is usually an abrupt end to Southern California's rainy season during the first half of April, so this part of the pattern may again produce some very interesting LRC 2009-2010 results one more time.  California is not near one of the long-term longwave troughs this winter, it is just this part of the pattern that produces the most significant storm systems near the west coast. If the west coast was near one of the longwave troughs then they would be getting hit more often than just during this part of the weather pattern.

Let's take a look at where we are right now.  We are at the end of cycle two of this year's weather pattern.  We have already described this as we moved from cycle 1 into cycle 2.  So, to some of you this may sound familiar.  Take a look at the next two maps as this is where we are right now:

The above map shows the 500 mb flow from November 23, 2009.  And the map below shows the 500 mb initialized on January 23, 2010 or 62 days later.  It is not a coincidence and I know this is just a snapshot in time.  The entire patern is cycling and we can back and forth days, weeks and months and show how it is the entire pattern that is following this year's LRC cycle duration. Just look at the comparisons:

And, this week take a look at what happens next:

The above map is from November 26th, and the map below is valid January 25th:

So, what happens next?  The big features are easier to predict, and this next pattern shift will likely happen during the next two weeks.  A hugh, high amplitude ridge will likely form as it has in cycle 1 and cycle 2. This will be the beginning of the Arctic Oscillation going back deep into the negative which has to lead to another Arctic outbreak:

This feature will likely develop in various ways during the next phase of the LRC.  The Arctic Oscillation will very likely be drifting back deep into the negative phase as it is also cycling, and quite possibly in assocation or closely related to the LRC. 

I will be back in Kansas City soon as we track these developments.  Let us know if you have any questions, thoughts or ideas! 

Gary